Gold at record high, experts see 12-15% returns

- Gold prices rose by Rs8k from Rs52k to Rs60k in FY23

- Russia- Ukraine war further increased hedge demand

- Global GDP slowdown fears fueling price rise

- Experts forecast Rs 66,000-68,000/10gm for gold by March

New Delhi: Gold prices rallied Rs940 to a life-time high of Rs62,020 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid strong global trends. Silver also zoomed Rs660 to Rs76,700 per kg. The precious metal had settled at Rs61,080 per 10 grams in the previous trade. Gold prices in the domestic market climbed to record high following overnight gains in the international market, said Saumil Gandhi, senior analyst (commodities) at HDFC Securities.

In the overseas market, both gold and silver were trading higher at $2,039.50 per ounce and $25.50 per ounce, respectively. Gold prices traded up in Asian trading hours on Thursday as dollar and bond yields dropped after the US Fed signalled a pause in policy tightening from the next meeting after hiking the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, Gandhi said.

After hitting record high, gold price is expected to go up further to give 10-15 per cent returns in FY24 for investors, said experts.

“Gold prices have rallied nearly to record highs. Domestically, it has touched Rs61,498/10 gm, with silver at Rs77,500/kg. Internationally too, the precious metals are trading at record highs, with gold hitting $2,080 and silver at $26, respectively,” said Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewellery.

“The rally in the prices of precious metals is largely due to the developments in the US-Fed meeting, the debt ceiling, and concerns around slowing economic growth affecting the USD and ultimately, the gold/silver prices,” Shah said.

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday hiked the policy rate by 25 basis points following with the gold prices touched $2,080/oz.The hiking of rates by the US Fed has put pressure on the dollar and indications of pausing and a likely mild recession in the later part of 2023 have provided support to gold prices, Shah added. According to Shah, the current setup has increased the appeal of safe haven investments like gold and silver.

International gold prices are likely to hit $2,090-2,100/oz and Rs 62,500-62,750/10 gm and silver prices between Rs 77,600-77,800 and $26.50-27/oz in the short to medium term.

“On the back of weak and uncertain performance in risky assets it is strongly advised to remain invested in Gold for further 10-15 per cent returns on base case and 15-20 per cent on bull case scenario,”Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Research Analyst, LKP Securities.

Trivedi said in FY23 gold prices jumped a massive Rs 8,000 in domestic markets from Rs 52,000 to Rs 60,000 which is 15 per cent returns beating all other asset classes.

The geopolitical tension in Russia and Ukraine and its escalation proved that gold is a perfect hedge in the portfolio giving out strong returns.

Going ahead gold still looks lucrative in terms of return on investment, from a safety perspective where the inflation still remains high globally and interest cycle which is yet to ease, will also provide the push needed for gold to run and give 10-15 per cent return in coming FY24.

The prices can easily touch Rs 66,000-68,000 on base case performance before we reach the FY24 end next year, Trivedi said.